While criminal history is correlated with risk of recidivism, I think it is important to note that research has consistently shown jail to be criminogenic. In other words, if two people commit the same crime and one gets probation and the other is sentenced to jail (less than one year), statistically speaking, the one who was sent to jail is more likely to recidivate. So while they both have criminal histories, so to speak, the one who received the harsher punishment is worse off in the long run.
While criminal history is correlated with risk of recidivism, I think it is important to note that research has consistently shown jail to be criminogenic. In other words, if two people commit the same crime and one gets probation and the other is sentenced to jail (less than one year), statistically speaking, the one who was sent to jail is more likely to recidivate. So while they both have criminal histories, so to speak, the one who received the harsher punishment is worse off in the long run.